How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need

In this chapter, Gates shifts from the discussion of technology and alternative energy sources to looking at government policies and how they can help us reach zero emissions. He shows how past attempts to deal with pollution and energy shortages resulted in effective legislation like the Clean Air Act of 1963 and the creation of the Department of Energy in the 1970s. In addition, federal efforts led the way in other areas like making electricity available nationwide, and state and local governments make their own policy that affects energy use. Thus, Gates argues, governments at all levels create policies that truly matter in the fight against climate change.

Government can spur the move toward clean energy through many types of policies. First, they can invest in R&D in areas that private companies won’t due to the lack of incentives. When something bears fruit, private money will then help it reach the market. A perfect example of this is the internet, which began as a government-funded project. Also, governments can drive Green Premiums down to zero through incentives. Using carbon has a cost, but society bears that cost, and it won’t be due for years to come. Gates argues that cost must be part of the equation so that dirty energy is more expensive and clean energy is cheaper. Meanwhile, we can overcome barriers unrelated to the market through education, training, and information.

In addition, when creating market incentives for clean energy, governments must keep policies up to date. Policies must reflect the latest technology and meet the needs of the present—while helping ensure that people aren’t left behind: Change always affects different people differently, and some inevitably stand to lose out. Governments should be ready to help any way they can—through job training, subsidies, and the like. Alone, technology or government policies cannot succeed. They must work in coordination along with markets. Businesses need the means to get ideas to the marketplace, which involves consistent and predictable government policies.

In this chapter, Gates introduces his plan for the specific things that governments can do to help get us to zero emissions. First, he clarifies the difference between two dates that often come up in this discussion. Some advocate reducing emissions by 2030 and getting to zero by 2050. While working toward both sounds reasonable, Gates thinks we should focus only on the latter. If we try to do both simultaneously, he argues, we may end up with competing goals and pursue early benchmarks that could hinder getting to zero.

Gates’s plan taps into many disciplines to learn how to reach zero and focuses on increasing both the supply and demand of innovations. He’s careful to stress that innovation isn’t just in the technological sense but involves novel approaches and methods in all areas, including government policies and business models. To increase the supply of the technologies he discussed in earlier chapters, the US government should increase its annual budget for R&D fivefold. In addition, it should take on projects that Gates calls “high risk, high reward” (201). Fear of failure and wasting money often leads to safe investments—but now is the time to go bold.

To be most effective, money for R&D should go to the areas of most need. Too often, scientists think research should be “pure” and disconnected from practical end use, creating an unnecessary division. Gates argues that some of the best breakthroughs have come when a goal for use is set at the start. A recent example is the “SunShot” program of the past decade that helped lower the cost of solar energy. Likewise, government and industry should work hand in hand from the beginning. Again, an artificial division between these two stages of innovation (government early, industry late) is all too common; businesses know what works in the market and how to scale up, so government should begin consulting with them early.

The demand side includes the proof phase and scaling up. The first can be a challenge; not only is it necessary to see whether something works in real-life conditions, but the proof phase must overcome some significant barriers. You need to “drive down the cost and risks of early adoption, develop supply chains, test your business model, and help consumers get comfortable with the new technology” (203). Governments at all levels can help here because they buy substantial amounts of goods and services. By prioritizing emerging technology, they can help create demand and thus a market. Additionally, governments can create up-to-date policies and incentives to lower risk for the private sector and ensure that emerging technologies can compete. Finally, governments need to build the infrastructure to get these technologies to the marketplace. For example, the viability of electric cars requires a network of charging stations.

When a technology is ready, we must scale it up. Governments have a lot of work to do here because, as Gates reminds us, we must triple our power output and make it carbon-free by mid-century. First, we should put a price on carbon to cut Green Premiums. This could be a tax or what’s called a cap-and-trade system, in which a limit is set and businesses can buy and sell their allotment of emissions. Clean electricity standards could also be set to require that power companies get a certain percentage of their electricity from clean sources. The same approach could help limit the use of fuel and products like steel and cement, requiring the use of certain clean technologies. Finally, incentives and policies can also require the retirement of older, carbon-emitting facilities and equipment before the end of their useful lives.

The final part of the chapter looks at how government at various levels might divide up these tasks. Regardless of how it works out in real life, Gates emphasizes that it’s important to get all levels of government thoroughly involved in the process to complete such a giant undertaking. Rich nations must lead the way by committing to zero emissions by 2050, helping less-rich nations do the same as soon after 2050 as possible, making specific plans to reach this goal, and funding research into clean energy. Even countries that lack the resources to lead the way can take measures, such as making trade agreements only with other countries that have committed to reducing greenhouse gases.

In the last chapter, Gates outlines the steps that individuals can take as we all work toward zero emissions. The best thing a citizen can do is engage with elected officials at all levels. Politicians set policy but have a lot of demands on their time, so keeping them focused on fighting climate change is important. People can also run for office themselves to bring this issue to the forefront.

As consumers, people often think of personal changes they make, like buying green products. While this helps signal that a market exists for such things, the larger impact comes from the systems that we’re all a part of. The electric grid is one example. In many places, consumers have a choice of getting some or all electricity from green sources. By opting for a green plan, consumers tell utility companies that a demand for clean energy exists. Home equipment—from heat pumps to light bulbs—can make a difference too.

As employees or employers, we can take similar measures in our business settings. Just as governments set policies and make decisions on goods and services, so do companies. They can adopt green policies like using an electric fleet. Some large companies even set up an internal carbon tax for each of their divisions. Business leaders must be willing to take on some of the higher risks involved in investing in new methods and technologies that might not pan out. Finally, as noted earlier, industry can work together with governments on R&D.

Gates ends by acknowledging the difficulties of the current political situation as it relates to climate change. He writes that he has no quick fix for that but hopes we can bridge the differences that exist through continued conversation and staying focused on the facts. He’s optimistic that we can reach the goal of zero emissions because of what’s he’s seen in both technological breakthroughs and the ability of people to do extraordinary things.

The brief Afterword concludes the book by referring to the COVID-19 pandemic that hit the world as Gates was working on this book. He draws many parallels between the pandemic and climate change, starting with international cooperation. In addition, science must lead the way and dictate responses to both, and solutions must focus on those who are most affected. In both crises, rich nations must step up and help those with fewer resources, and governments can invest in R&D that simultaneously boosts the economy and innovation. Gates points out that despite the pandemic’s disastrous consequences, it hasn’t dampened the public’s desire to tackle climate change. He concludes that the best response to the dismal year of 2020 would be to double down on work during the next decade to reach the goal of zero emissions by mid-century.