In the Likely Event

Fiji: June 2017. Izzy is having trouble sleeping because she has realized that she is in love with Nate. As a result, she is becoming frustrated by his attempts to keep her at arm’s length. As she contemplates the situation, she hears Nate moaning in his sleep and realizes that he is having a nightmare. She goes to calm him, but he responds by pinning her on the bed and reaching for a non-existent weapon under the pillow. When Nate comes fully awake and realizes what he has done, he’s horrified and retreats from the room, using the excuse that he needs to go for a swim. Izzy waits for him to come back but eventually falls asleep.

When she wakes, she finds Nate watching her from a chair. He tells her that he has made arrangements for them to meet in Palau in October of the following year. He arranged for her flight to Palau to depart from New York, because he learned from Serena that she has been offered a tempting position at a New York law firm and really wants to accept it. Nate makes it clear that he wants to continue seeing Izzy, but he doesn’t want her to give up her dreams for him. When Izzy questions whether his decision has anything to do with his nightmare, he denies it while also admitting that the cause of the nightmare—his military service—is the reason why he can’t commit to her. Izzy argues against his logic, but Nate continues to resist her attempts to convince him. Izzy finally admits that she loves Nate, and he begs her not to become so attached to him even as he expresses his own need for her.

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. The US embassy is in chaos as the Taliban forces move closer and closer to Kabul. Nate attends a briefing and learns that Mazar-i-Sharif is still holding out but is expected to fall soon. At the end of the briefing, Webb informs Nate that Senator Lauren has given permission for Izzy to remain in Afghanistan in order to help process visas for interpreters and other evacuees. Nate correctly assumes that Izzy’s motive for staying is to wait for Serena. When Nate goes to Izzy’s suite, she is on the phone with the State Department, attempting to expedite Taj’s visa. Eventually, Izzy is able to establish that the delay is based on a missing reference letter in Taj’s application. Nate takes the paperwork and sends it to Webb to get a reference letter. He then has his team prepare for Serena to flee Mazar-i-Sharif, and they also provide her with a cell phone. When everyone is gone, Nate and Izzy argue over Izzy’s decision to stay, and the argument leads to another discussion about their failed relationship. Izzy accuses Nate of being emotionally unavailable and of abandoning her.

New York: October 2018. Serena comes to stay at Izzy’s apartment in Brooklyn, taking care of Izzy’s cat while Izzy flies to Palau. When Izzy admits that she hasn’t heard from Nate in weeks, Serena questions the wisdom of making the trip. She also questions how long Izzy will be willing to stay in an undefined relationship with a man who constantly chooses his career over her. The next day, Izzy flies to Chicago, where she is meant to meet Nate before they catch a plane to Palau together. When Nate doesn’t show up, Izzy assumes that he missed his connection and will meet her later. However, Nate isn’t at the hotel when she arrives in Palau. She goes to their room and falls asleep, waking the next day to discover that Nate still has not arrived. She attempts to contact him through text messages and calls, but there is no answer. Finally, Izzy gives up and goes home.

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. Nate and Izzy continue arguing. Izzy admits that she broke off her engagement with Jeremy because he cheated on her. When Nate states that Jeremy isn’t worthy of her, Izzy calls him out for being unavailable just like Jeremy. In return, Nate accuses Izzy of never really wanting him. Izzy tells him that he’s wrong, insisting that he misunderstood what happened between them the last time they met. In response, Nate cuts the tape from his dog tags and places an engagement ring on the counter as proof that his perspective on the incident she references is not wrong.

New York: October 2018. Nate knocks on the door to Izzy’s apartment, and her father opens it. Izzy’s father tries to prevent Nate from seeing Izzy, but Izzy overhears the conversation and comes to the door. Nate explains that he missed the trip to Palau because he was in Special Forces training and was not allowed to have access to his cell phone. He expected to be released in time to make it to Palau, but his friend, Julian, was killed during training. Nate has just driven six hours from Julian’s funeral to ask Izzy to marry him. He tells her that he will quit his career in the military if she accepts his proposal. Izzy hesitates because it is obvious that Nate is emotionally distraught. Nate interprets Izzy’s refusal to give him an answer as an outright “no” and walks away. He goes back to Torres’s truck and asks Torres what he should do. Torres advises him to join the Special Forces.

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. Nate accuses Izzy of refusing his proposal, but she tells him that she didn’t turn him down. She also reminds him that at that point in their lives, they had only spent nine days together in total, and she had already noted his habit of keeping her in the dark. In response, Nate admits that he blames himself for Julian’s death because Julian was bitten by a snake during a march and refused to tell anyone. The snake was going after Nate, but Julian stepped in the way. Nate knew that Julian should get medical help, but he also respected Julian’s desire to finish training. Julian died later that day, and when Nate was told, he initially believed it to be a lie designed to test his psychological strength.