The Collapse of Western Civilization

The Collapse of Western Civilization assumes that readers will have a basic understanding of climate change science and the implications of climate change. A few relevant elements of climate change science that are important for the understanding of the text include the carbon cycle, the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, tipping points and feedback loops, and global heat distribution.

The carbon cycle refers to the cyclical movement of carbon between the atmosphere and the ground. Atmospheric carbon is absorbed by plants and water, and it interacts with certain rocks, including limestone. It is then stored in the earth or in the oceans, and since carbon is acidic, this results in the acidification of oceans. Greenhouse gases are gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), that trap radiation from leaving the Earth’s atmosphere. The greenhouse effect of these gases is important for maintaining habitable temperatures, but excessive greenhouse gases are causing the global temperature to rise and the climate to destabilize.

As a result, extreme weather events are becoming more common. As greenhouse gas levels continue to rise, scientists predict that the weather will continue to destabilize, negatively impacting both humans and the environment. Aerosols are small particles within the atmosphere. Some aerosols, particularly those that are lighter in color, can reflect incoming sunlight. This concept is found in the description of the Crutzen Project. This is not considered an effective means of climate change mitigation, as aerosols are often harmful to human health, and, as demonstrated in the text, ceasing the use of aerosols could result in termination shock, or a sudden and drastic rise in global temperatures.

Since areas along the equator are already warm, they are the most at risk of rising temperatures. This is why at the end of Chapter 2 the historian notes, “The human populations of Australia and Africa, of course, were wiped out” (33). This idea also implies that some areas may not experience as many negative impacts or, in some cases, may benefit from climate change. Since neo-Communist China has cold and temperate regions, the government was able to move citizens away from the coastal and warmer regions, thus preserving a significant portion of its population.

In the same chapter, the historian also mentions tipping points and feedback loops. Tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, cannot be reversed and can set off feedback loops, or self-perpetuating responses. The tipping point and feedback loop discussed in Chapter 2 is the thawing of Arctic permafrost. Areas of frozen ground in the Arctic contain stored methane. As temperatures rise and the ground thaws, that methane is released into the atmosphere. The atmospheric methane—which has a significantly stronger greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide—causes more warming, and the warming exacerbates the thawing.

Several environmental, physical, and social consequences of climate change that have been predicted by scientists appear in the text. Extreme weather events are expected to become more common with the progression of climate change, and the historian notes a few such events, including fires in Russia and flooding in Australia—both of which are true events. Less direct consequences of climate change that appear include higher rates of disease transmission, insect population booms that result in agricultural or environmental losses, and social unrest. The latter complication is the primary focus of the text.

The historian analyzes the origins and persistence of climate change denial, targeting scientific principles and neoliberalism. The strict adherence to neoliberalism combined with the impacts of climate change are what caused the collapse of Western civilization. A communist approach, or at least a political approach that readily accepts governmental interference, is presented as a potential way to mitigate the impacts of climate change, demonstrated through the fictional China’s ability to protect a majority of its citizens from the worst impacts of climate change.