The Collapse of Western Civilization

A carbon sink is an area that is capable of absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it. Examples of carbon sinks include forests and oceans, as well as underground carbon deposits, such as oil or natural gas reservoirs.

The cryosphere refers to the Earth’s ice surface and includes sea ice, ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost, or water frozen within the ground. During the height of climate change, the cryosphere was severely degraded, leading to a drastic rise in sea levels.

Greenhouse gases are gases that prevent radiation, or heat, from escaping the Earth’s atmosphere, thereby raising the global temperature. The most frequently cited greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄). While greenhouse gases are commonly associated with the burning of fossil fuels, they also escape into the atmosphere from reservoirs or during the extraction and processing of fossil fuels; these emissions are referred to as fugitive emissions.

Human adaptive optimism is a two-part concept that holds humans are capable of limitless adaptation, and that humans evolved to remain optimistic. The historian cites human adaptive optimism as one of the reasons humans did not act to prevent climate change. Humans had an optimistic view that they could adapt to the changing weather; however, the changes were so extreme that the human population drastically declined.

The IPCC, or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is a real-world multi-national organization. It was established in 1988 to promote research and public awareness of climate change.

The Kyoto Protocol is a climate agreement that was established in 2005 by the UFNCCC. The purpose of the agreement is to hold the member-nations accountable for lowering their greenhouse gas emissions to agreed-upon numbers. At the time of writing, over 190 nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

Positivism, associated with Auguste Comte, holds that reliable knowledge is gained through personal observation and that anything that cannot be directly observed cannot be positively known. A subdivision, logical positivism, emphasizes the role of linguistics and promotes neutral presentations of scientific theories.

Baconianism is an extension of positivism, and it originated with Francis Bacon (1561-1626). The philosophy states that reliable knowledge is gained through either observation, experience, or experimentation, and that this knowledge is empowering to the knower. The historian negates Baconianism by arguing the people living during the Penumbra knew the causes and consequences of climate change, but were not empowered to act.

The precautionary principle is the idea of prioritizing well-being. In relation to climate change, the precautionary principle holds that beneficial and preventative actions should be taken regardless of whether the scientific data definitively shows a causal relationship. A lack of definitive science can arise as a result of statistical significance and Fisherian statistics, both of which encourage scientists to be cautious with identifying causal relationships.

Reductionism is a method of performing scientific research in which complex systems are broken down into component parts to be studied. The goal is to first comprehend the smaller units, then to construct an overall understanding of the complex unit. Reductionism is criticized in the text as limiting and as antithetical to the research of complex systems like climate.

The historian stresses the emphasis on statistics—particularly statistical significance utilizing Fisherian statistics—when drawing and publishing scientific information. Fisherian statistics, originally proposed by R.A. Fisher in the 1900s, is a mathematical analytical system that is intended to differentiate between accidental and causal relationships. It is linked to the popular phrase, “correlation is not causation” (57). It uses the concept of statistical significance, which is the idea that an event is only considered true if it has small (roughly 1 in 20) odds of occurring by chance. Thus, if scientific data showed more than a 1 in 20 chance that an event could occur by chance, Fisherian principles may recognize a correlative relationship but would avoid recognizing a causal relationship between the factors being studied.

Tipping points and feedback loops are integral features of climate change. Tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in feedback loops, or self-perpetuating consequences. For instance, the historian notes the hypothetical methane tipping point and subsequent feedback loop—when methane levels cross a tipping point, hypothetically they will cause enough warming to result in further methane release, which results in more warming, etc.

A Type I error is defined as mistakenly believing something to be true when it is false, while Type II errors are the reverse—believing something to be false when it is true. The historian notes that, in the 20th century, people believed Type I errors were more serious than Type II. The fear of looking foolish by believing something untrue prevented many scientists from publishing their findings regarding climate change.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a treaty that was established by the United Nations in 1992. The UNFCCC is a formal agreement between the member-nations of the United Nations to mitigate anthropogenic climate change.