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54 pages 1 hour read

Naomi Oreskes

The Collapse of Western Civilization

Fiction | Novel | Adult | Published in 2014

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Introduction-Chapter 1Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Introduction Summary

The authors—Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway—identify The Collapse of Western Civilization as a cross between a historical text and a work of science-fiction, both of which are geared toward understanding the present. The fictional, three-part essay is narrated by a future historian living in the Second People’s Republic of China. The historian addresses the Period of the Penumbra running from 1988 to 2093, and the subsequent Great Collapse and Mass Migration spanning 2073 through 2093. During the Period of the Penumbra, a second Dark Age arose driven by climate and science denial and a “fixation” on free-market capitalism.

Chapter 1 Summary: “The Coming of the Penumbral Age”

Chapter 1 opens with a map of the Netherlands—most of which is underwater—comparing the sea levels from the years 2000 and 2300.

Unlike previous collapsed civilizations, the Western civilization of the 21st century left detailed records of its demise. Specialists in 2300 have agreed that the people in the 21st century understood what was happening but did not act to stop it—“Knowledge did not translate into power” (2). A three-part Industrial Revolution, first taking place in the United Kingdom, then the remainder of Europe and the United States, then Brazil, China, and India, increased the carbon dioxide (CO2) and water in the atmosphere, trapping heat in the atmosphere and raising global temperatures. In a brief aside, the narrator announces they will use era-specific nation names rather than the common 2300 nomenclatures of Cambria (the UK), the Nordo-Scandinavian Union, and the United States of North America.

By the 1900s, scientists understood that carbon dioxide pollution could potentially raise global temperatures, but they assumed that the atmosphere was capable of absorbing and diluting any human-caused emissions. Carbon sinks—areas that absorb and store atmospheric carbon—began to reach capacity. Other sources of pollution, such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), chlorinated fluorocarbons (CFCs), and methane (CH4), were found to be environmentally detrimental in the 1960s. In the 1970s, scientists realized that human activity was severely impacting the environment, and the time period is now recognized as the Anthropocene Period, named for the anthropogenic activity, or human activities that impact the environment. Such researchers did not realize the extent of the consequences of anthropogenic activity, with the exception of Paul Ehrlich; he wrote The Population Bomb in the 1960s, but the book was considered obsolete within 30 years.

Climate and environmental research expanded; people celebrated an annual Earth Day, and the Environmental Protection Agency was formed. Before the 1990s, scientists realized that human activity was changing the Earth’s systems and that, if not stopped, would have dire consequences. In 1988—considered the beginning of the Penumbral Period—the nations united to form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or the IPCC, and in 1992, a multi-national treaty—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)—was established to mitigate human-caused climate change.

Despite the recognition of anthropogenic climate change and the attempts to mitigate it, the climate-movement was met with severe criticism, particularly from the United States, who failed to recognize their self-favoring bias. While some nations attempted to coerce the United States into compliance, others followed in the US’s footsteps. By 2000, climate change denial was prevalent throughout the world in both industrial and developing nations. There were some national outliers, including China, which established then-controversial population control measures and implemented low-carbon practices. While China’s investment in decarbonization caused an initial spike in carbon emissions, once the infrastructure was in place, their emissions dramatically declined.

In the early 2000s, signs of anthropogenic climate change emerged, but denial continued. Active deniers claimed the weather events—fires, massive storms, heat waves, and floods—were natural, while passive deniers did not feel the events were bad enough to warrant making lifestyle changes. Scientists attempted to discover the causes of individual weather events: “Of course the threat to civilization inhered not in any individual flood, heat wave, or hurricane, but in the overall shifting climate pattern, its impact on the cryosphere, and the increasing acidification of the world ocean” (7).

Although the majority of individuals recognized the climate crisis, fossil fuel companies enacted an anti-climate change campaign that quashed public climate-action support shortly before the 15th UNFCCC meeting in 2009, which was considered the last chance for humans to effectively prevent a catastrophe. The climate continued to change, resulting in disastrous weather events, including wildfires in Russia that killed 50,000 in 2010 and floods in Australia that killed 250,000 in 2011. The United States experienced record-high winter and summer temperatures, and in 2023, summertime heat waves killed 500,000 people and cost around $500,000 in losses. Such extremes were accepted as the “new normal,” and people increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Introduction-Chapter 1 Analysis

The Introduction is an accompaniment to The Collapse of Western Civilization, and it addresses the unique blend of fiction and nonfiction elements appearing within the text. The fictional perspective allows the authors more freedom in addressing modern-day climate change denial. They can incorporate literary devices such as satire and sarcasm, which would be considered unprofessional and invalidating in a nonfiction text.

However, the fictional format does not prevent them from incorporating factual information supported by in-text citations or references to real-world individuals, places, and events. By discussing the mixed-genre of the text, and by describing its setting, the authors help readers to better delineate between the factual and fictional elements. The publication date of the text is also critical for proper interpretation. The text includes dated references to fictional events that take place in the mid-2000s; such fictional references may mistakenly be believed as fact if readers are unaware of the publication date of 2014. Any events described after 2014 are entirely fictional.

Chapter 1 serves multiple important purposes, including extending the setting development that was initiated in the Introduction, elucidating the primary themes, and demonstrating the purpose of the text. The setting development is particularly complex as it contains multiple layers. The time setting is not directly stated but can be inferred from the graphics appearing in the beginning of each chapter, which compare the sea levels of 2000 with 2300. The setting is further developed through the historian’s comparisons between past and present geography. Along with imparting setting-related details, these comparisons also introduce The Potential Consequences of Unchecked Climate Change.

This theme implicitly emerges through the idea that unchecked climate change will lead to the destabilization of multiple civilizations—particularly those like the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other European countries, which are currently considered world leaders. This theme is further developed toward the end of the chapter, which details numerous catastrophic events caused by climate change, such as Russian heat waves and wildfires in 2010, flooding in Australia in 2012, and winter heat waves in the US in 2023: “[I]n 2023, the infamous ‘year of perpetual summer’ lived up to the name, taking 500,000 lives worldwide and costing nearly $500 billion in losses” (8). The first two references are factual and took place before the publication of the text, but the high winter temperatures of 2023 are fictional. This demonstrates how closely interwoven fact and fiction are in the text. They also emphasize the ominous mood of the text by suggesting extreme and detrimental weather events are a current rather than future concern.

While the potential environmental and weather-related changes are mentioned, the authors emphasize the social causes and implications of climate change through two other primary themes. Logical Fallacies of Neoliberalism and the Free Market is introduced through the discussions of climate change denial and elaborated upon in the second and third chapters. The Promotion of Interdisciplinary and Holistic Science emerges through the criticism of real-world norms in the science community, including that scientists specialize in certain fields rather than practice more general research and that scientists often take a reductionist approach.

The specification of “physical scientists” is intended as a criticism of specialization, and reductionism is blamed for delaying climate action: “The physical scientists studying these steadily increasing disasters did not help quell this denial, and instead became entangled in arcane arguments about the ‘attribution’ of singular events” (6). The authors are criticizing the tendency for specialists to examine the causes and effects of specific events, and in doing so they imply that a holistic approach would help people better understand the complex, interrelated social and physical factors of climate change.

Through the development of the themes and settings, it becomes apparent that the purpose of The Collapse of Western Civilization is to inspire social change and climate action. The authors criticize both socio-political and scientific practices, reducing the pro-science bias that often appears in information related to climate change. Furthermore, while satirical criticism is a main feature of the book, such criticism is not the overarching purpose. Rather, the purpose is to identify the real-world sociological features—including reductionism and specialization in science, capitalism, and the carbon industrial complex—that are preventing people from acting to mitigate climate change. By identifying the barriers to climate action, humanity has a better chance of overcoming obstacles. The emphasis on knowledge without action—“Indeed, the most startling aspect of this story is just how much these people knew, and how unable they were to act upon what they knew” (1)—acts as another source of motivation for climate action, as it may make some people uncomfortable to be caught in such logical fallacies.

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